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Prediction for CME (2023-10-31T22:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-31T22:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27537/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is a filament eruption stretching between S18E00 to S40E40. The filament begins to erupt around 2023-10-31T20:00Z as seen in SDO/AIA 304 with clear deflection to the south/southeast towards disk center before exiting the SDO/AIA field-of-view. Brightening, moving/opening field lines, and a wide-set post-eruptive arcade are visible following the eruption of the filament in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 304. Likely arrival signature is characterized by a rapid amplification of magnetic field with Btotal increasing from 5nT at 2023-11-04T15:45Z to 16nT at 16:57Z. A significant increase in density is observed as well. Further review of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian at NASA/GSFC suggests that this arrival may be associated with CME: 2023-10-31T22:12Z. It is possible that the B rotations in late Nov 4 at the WIND spacecraft are due to the same CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-04T15:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-04T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Nov 01 1247 UTC:
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31101
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Nov 2023, 1246UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) 
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 006 
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 148 / AP: 005 
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 004

Coronal mass ejections: Coronal mass ejections: A filament eruption in the south-east quadrant late on Oct 31st resulted in a south-west coronal mass ejection (CME), first detected by LASCO C2 at 21:36 UTC. The estimated projected velocity of the CME is around 500 km/s. Based on the location of the filament the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, but a glancing blow is possible to arrive on Nov 4th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Lead Time: 74.48 hour(s)
Difference: 12.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-11-01T13:16Z

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